I have a friend, who is master in making speculations. Interestingly most of his speculations turns out to be true. We always debate whether those are due to sheer coincidence or he has extra-ordinary sense of political forecast. Today he speculated a very interesting political development that can take place post Lok Sabha official results.
According to him, Modi
is going to be the Prime Minister leading BJP led NDA. There would be
bad results for JD(U) in Bihar. This would split JD(U) because there
is lot of dissent against Nitish Kumar for breaking ties with BJP.
Even Sharad Yadav hinted regarding the dissent. There would be
division in the party and the rebel group will be headed by Sharad
Yadav that would finally merge with the BJP and there would be a BJP
government in Bihar
led by Sushil Modi by mid June 2014. Rest JD(U)
would also subject to split up and that group would merge with RJD,
making Rabri Devi as Leader of Opposition!
too, AAP would disintegrate. The dissent
inside AAP is at the extreme and after expected poor performance in
Lok Sabha elections, Arvind Kejriwal is set to be rusticated from the
party. The rebel AAP group would merge in BJP and there would be a
BJP government too in Delhi
during June 2014. Already Kumar Vishwas
on record has expressed that escaping from Delhi
governance was a
In Uttarakhand also there would be split in ruling
Congress. There were rumors of such split before the elections. As
BJP is likely to get all the Parliamentary seats in Uttarakhand, thus
post results, there could be a BJP government in the state too!
However, I just asked him what if NDA remains some
20-30 seats short of the majority figure and if Jaya, Mamata and
Mayawati decides to support Modi as Prime Minister?
He confidently said that 'first at all there would
be no need of support from anybody. If at all support is required,
supports would come from TRS, YSRC and NCP! TRS will have to support
because it would need special package and an attention from the
Jagan Mohan Reddy had already said that his options
are open for whoever is forming the government. Regarding NCP, you
must have heard rumors of Praful Patel joining BJP! In fact if
required, the entire NCP under the leadership of Patel would merge in
BJP as Shiv Sena may object NCP as NDA ally!
Frankly speaking I didn't agree to his utter
speculations, but yes, I couldn't disagree either because nothing is
impossible in our polity!