Now, in the case of Uttar Pradesh, though a few Congress leaders have already hinted for President’s Rule but then it would not be child’s play for it to be implemented. The heavy turnout of voters is being looked upon as an ‘anti-incumbency’ factor but then in the assembly elections of Gujarat and Bihar it didn’t happen and people voted back Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar to power in their respective states.
This happened when Modi removed over 60 sitting MLAs and Nitish too gave a chance to many new faces in his state. Similarly, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader and present Uttar Pradesh chief minister, Km. Mayawati, has also denied tickets to some 100 of her sitting MLAs and has inducted new and young faces in her party. She has also justified her action of not giving tickets to the sitting MLAs as she found them tainted, involved in corrupt practises and doing damage to her party and reputation.
No doubt, Mayawati doesn’t hesitate when it comes to taking stringent action against her own party MLAs or MPs or ministers. She has done it time and again to prove that she is a strict administrator, and will not be going to tolerate any nonsense in her regime. This has made her popular among the masses and especially among her Dalit vote bank, which see her as their lone saviour and leader.
The biggest strength of Mayawati in present times in Uttar Pradesh is that she is the only recognized Dalit leader whose supremacy remains unchallenged from all her political rivals, and that she gets a consolidated base of votes in every constituency whenever her party gets into the election mode.
All other leaders in Uttar Pradesh hailing from all major national and regional political parties either belong to the OBC i.e. other backward classes category or they represent the minority community (read Muslims). Now, if we closely analyse the political strength of OBC leaders, their votes get divided into various categories which ultimately gives political benefit to BSP leader Mayawati in the elections.
Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav plays his politics around the vote bank of Yadavs and Muslims in the state. He makes his political equations on this formula and in order to give more strength to his party and to increase his vote bank among the other backward classes in the state he committed one of his biggest political mistakes of his career when he shook hands with former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh. This annoyed the Muslims and many Yadavs in the state as Muslims see Kalyan Singh as a political enemy responsible for the Babri Masjid demolition. Kalyan Singh is the biggest leader of Lodh community in the state, and the number of Lodh voters in many constituencies in the western Uttar Pradesh, Bundelkhand region is quite high and can upset any political equation.
Perhaps this is the reason why the BJP had to bring in another Lodh leader from Madhya Pradesh, Uma Bharati to Uttar Pradesh in order to counter the political weight of Jan Kranti Party (Nationalist) leader Kalyan Singh.
The Congress also does not have any big Dalit leader here in Uttar Pradesh that can pose any challenge to Mayawati. The BJP is already known to be a party of upper caste Hindus and thus it doesn’t get the Muslim vote share in its kitty. The other regional party the Janta Dal United has also been looked as the party belonging to the OBC category.
Thus, the votes of OBC and Muslims get divided among all the parties whereas some 22 percent of the Dalit vote share goes straight to Behenji’s account and thus the BSP gets an upper edge in the elections. More, the social engineering formula adopted by the party is yielding favourable results for the BSP and thus many political pundits here feel the elephant would remain high than cycle even if it sits down, and they are hoping the BSP to get around 145 to 160 seats.
In that case, the BJP MLAs here can support the BSP in which Lucknow MP Lalji Tandon who is also the ‘rakhi brother’ of Behen Mayawati, can play a big role in making the right political deal as no MLA would be interested in going for the President’s Rule in the state after spending over lakhs of rupees in the elections.