BALUCHISTAN MIGHT become a Chinese military base in the near future, considering the ties between China and Pakistan. Apart from strenghtening the relations of the two countrues, it would also provide a base for China in South Asia that is of strategic importance vis a vis American bases in the region.
Afghanistan is destined to be the battlefield of the world. It is from here that the new world order would be decided. Afghanistan has seen many cultures come and go throughout the centuries but has never been conquered. Pashtuns form the largest political and cultural ethnic group in the country with a mix of Tajiks, Hazara, Aimak, Uzbeks, Uyghur, Turkmen and other smaller groups like many Soviet bloc Muslims in central Asia.
The war would be fought between the Russians, Americans and the Chinese with their allies and the outcome is difficult to guess. While Russia has successfully created a trusting image with all the leaders of the Arab and Muslim countries in the region, this cannot be said for its relations with Pakistan. In fact, this nation might make all the difference in the conflict.
Russia has been associated with this region for many years and with India's help, would be able to once again regain lost ground. India and Russia know and understand this region far better than anybody in the world today. The best part is, neither Russia nor India are in anybody's bad books in this region. Russian military involvement in Afghanistan has a long history, going back to Tsarist expansions as in 1885, when Russian forces seized Afghan territory south of the Oxus River around an oasis at Panjdeh.
This interest in the region continued on through the Soviet era, with billions in economic and military aid sent to Afghanistan between 1955 and December 24, 1979. In February 15, 1989, direct soviet intervention took place and led to the installation of a puppet government in the nation.
The main reason why Najibullah lost power, was the fact that Russia refused to sell oil products to Afghanistan in 1992 for political reasons. The new Russian government did not want to support former communists and effectively triggered an embargo.
The defection of General Abdul Rashid Dostam and his Uzbek militia in March 1992, ultimately undermined Najibullah's control of the state. In April, he and his communist government fell to the Mujahideen, who replaced Najibullah with a new governing council for the country backed by Pakistan and the US.
The Russians are now recouping and have drastically improved their military and economic might . They might take the Afghan nation before any country puts its foot here, unless Pakistan intervenes, with the aid of China or USA.
Within the next five years, Russia will once again become a formidable power in the world of politics and economy, much greater than what USSR was. The Russians once again would be joined by the former Warsaw pact countries. It might also form an alliance with Muslims countries in the Middle east. These would include, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Baluchistan, Central Asian Muslim countries and Egypt.
We in India have to draw some hard decisions, as we tend to lose much more than what we have ever gained in the region. We should not forget that huge markets for our industry and technology are waiting to be tapped in the region. Apart from this, we have Indian expats and the energy requirements at stake. We surely cannot achieve anything on the basis of diplomacy, but can achieve a lot by taking stands and playing an active role in the region.
The access to Afghanistan by sea and the new land route is under threat as the Chinese would be building a base there. We can manoeuvre our way into these stakes by making an alliance with any superpower and start building our place in the region as a dependable force. We can even utilize this by working under the banner of the United Nations.
Another way is to get hold of the Russians and ally Baluchistan and Iran on our side and entering south Afghanistan with a joint peacekeeping force and building a base there. This alliance is the best way for us. The only hindrance is our armed capability which the bureaucrats and the politicians have greatly undermined over the years, as compared to China. Our endeavours would amount to nothing even if China brings in a smaller army.
3.36 / 11 votes 
