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The challenges ahead for Prashant Kishor for his mission PM Nitish Kumar 2019
Prashant Kishor, the poll strategist who was primarily responsible for the successful campaigns of Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar is now on mission mode again, to project Nitish Kumar as the prime ministerial candidate in the 2019 general elections.

For this Nitish Kumar was made the president of JD (U), discarding the rule of one man one post. According to Prashant Kishor, being party president, Nitish Kumar can marshal his party men well and negotiate with other parties in stronger terms. 

In the meantime, Prashant Kishor is busy organizing JD (U)'s merger with parties like RLD in UP and JVM in Jharkhand. Veteran JD (U) leader KC Tyagi has been given the task of negotiating with RLD, whereas Prashant Kishor is in direct talks with JVM.

As per the plan, many other smaller parties are to be convinced to merge with JD (U) instead of being in another alliance. All the poll mathematics has been worked out brilliantly and care is being taken that not even a small percentage of votes go waste.

JDS in Karnataka and such other smaller parties are to merge with JD (U) and TRS, JMM, AUDF etc will become allies. Left parties most probably will be post-poll allies shunting TMC, because Left already has a coalition with Congress.

It is also expected that Congress will remain a strong ally for JD (U). In 2019 Congress may not get such numbers to have its prime minister, thus in a hung Parliament, Nitish Kumar can be projected as the prime ministerial candidate, expanding JD (U)'s strength.

The point is, whether Prashant Kishor will succeed in doing that? Very simple answer is that in politics nothing is impossible. If proper poll mathematics is done then success rate is always higher. However I am inclined to do an analysis on why I think it will be tough for Prashant Kishor.

First among non-BJP parties there are strong regional leaders aspiring to be prime ministers, if such a chance comes by. Mulayam Singh Yadav, Jayalaitha, Lalu Prasad Yadav (through Rabdi Devi if he is not cleared by the High Court), Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati etc, although anti-BJP and anti-Modi, but they all may not like to see Nitish Kumar being elevated to a stature above them. Thus, a true anti-BJP alliance may not materialize.

The immediate task is to enter into Uttar Pradesh. JD (U) after RLD's merger is expected to form an alliance with Congress, Left and other smaller parties in UP. I don't think SP or BSP will be ready for any alliance with JD (U). BSP is expected to form next government in the state as BJP doesn't look like repeating the 2014 success because of weak state leadership.

But if somehow the JD (U)-led alliance becomes the fourth credible alternative in UP, then it will be a four cornered contest with four strong candidates. This will suit BJP more, as although it won't be able to form a government of its own, but it will have a say in formation of the next government in the state.

JD (U)-Congress alliance will eat away BSP's votes which would come to them as incumbency of SP. Thus, a BJP-BSP government is a possibility. The minority community is expected to vote this time for BSP, but they may get inclined to vote for the JD (U)-Congress alliance. Hence, all mathematics could fail.

In Bihar also, with such high ambitions of Nitish Kumar, cracks in the RJD-JD (U) alliance are clearly visible now. Lalu Prasad Yadav had thrown a barb at Nitish when he had appointed himself as the JD (U) party president, citing that one man one post rule has been sacrificed due to individual aspirations.

On the other hand, JD (U) spokesperson has already started opening his mouth against criminality of RJD MLAs and specifically on Mohammad Sahabuddin's induction as the party's general secretary in spite of his conviction by courts.

Lalu Yadav being stronger due to his party being the largest partner of the alliance is definitely not comfortable with Nitish's ambitions. The desperate situation may have brought them together but the real rivalry has not been forgotten.

However another two factors shouldn't be ignored. Sharad Yadav was the leader of JD (U) in which George Fernandez-led Samata party had merged. Thus, Sharad Yadav will not take it lightly if he is asked to demit the party head post. Then in 2019 they are not facing UPA-II prime Minister Manmohan Singh. It's against Narendra Modi, who alone has the capacity to boost his party's votes by around 8-10 per cent.

However, as citizen we would like to see a credible alternative to Narendra Modi because if there will be no alternatives then even able statesmen can became dictators.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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