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Ukraine-Russia crisis may hit India's trade with CIS by 15% in fiscal year 2013-14
India's trade with CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) has plummeted by over eight per cent during April-January 2013-14 against the corresponding period of last year and it is likely to decline by 15 per cent if tensions between Russia-Ukraine further escalate, according to a just-concluded an analysis by the industry body Assocham.
India's bilateral trade with Ukraine for the whole year will be around US $2 billion thereby facing a shortfall of about 36 per cent as compared to the last year, according to an independent calculation by the Assocham Economic Research Bureau (AERB).

"India's export with CIS has declined by 3.23 per cent and import has declined by 10.21 per cent during the April-January 2013-14," said Assocham's Secretary General, D.S. Rawat.

The Assocham analysis has observed that crisis will impact India's pharmaceutical industry and electrical machinery industry significantly as pharmaceuticals are the top most exporting goods to the CIS region, followed by electrical machinery goods.

During 2012-13 both pharmaceuticals and electrical machinery goods have registered robust growth rate as against 2011-12, evidently as pharmaceutical export has grown at a rate of 32.4 per cent and electrical machinery has grown at a rate of 20.3 per cent.

Russia and Ukraine are India's two leading trade partners in the region, besides, Ukraine is also the gateway for India's exports to a number of other CIS countries. "A lengthened conflict will lead to shipments getting stuck."

India's bilateral trade with Ukraine during 2012-13 was $3.17 billion while bilateral trade with CIS countries was $10.8 billion, according to the analysis.

During 2012-13, India's bilateral trade with Ukraine has registered a growth rate of 6.5 per cent while in the ongoing financial year 2013-14, it has declined by 27.1 percent. "If uncertainty prevails for long time, India?s bilateral trade with Ukraine will further deteriorate."

India's export with Ukraine has declined by 7.08 per cent during April to January 2013-14, while the imports have declined by about 31 per cent during the same period. The major product imported by India from Ukraine includes edible oil, petroleum products, fertilizer, iron & steel, inorganic chemical, ores, salg & ash, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances etc.


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