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Uri terror attack: Why I think India will retaliate, but not immediately
The predawn attack at Uri Army base by four terrorists belonging to Pakistan sponsored Jaish-e-Mohammad (Tanjeem) on 18th September 2016 was one of the worst attacks in nearly two decades. 17 Indian soldiers died in the attack.

The attack has angered the Indian public and it is demanding strict action against the attackers. The government of India is having series of meetings at various levels to decide how to deal with the terrorists and their sponsor.

Angry people also raised questions like why home minister Rajnath Singh was taking review meetings instead of defence minister as it was a war like situation? Why defence minister and the Army chief visited Kashmir instead of making strategy at the South Block?

The responsibility of making preparations for counter attack should be left to Commanders at the ground level. Why politicians are interfering in it? Who is responsible for the massacre of Indian soldiers despite intelligence input about such attacks? Is there any gap in intelligence sharing? Where is Narendra Modi who boasts about having a chest of 56 inch etc?

There are no two opinions that the Narendra Modi-led government has already taken a different approach towards Pakistan. After the failure of peace making attempts, and particularly after the Pathankot attack PM Modi decided that Pakistan cannot be treated through conventional diplomacy.

PM Modi has successfully isolated Pakistan on international platforms. After Pakistan started interfering in Kashmir post Burhan Wani's encounter, Modi started talking about Balochistan and extended India's support to it. But no one said that India was interfering in Pakistan's internal affairs.

Was there any intelligence failure? This question has no direct answer. But there was intelligence input after which the Indian Army foiled at least 10 out of 12 such attacks in the last one month. Attack number 12 might be considered as an ambush that proved unlucky for Uri Army base.

Now, let's clarify the real aim of Pakistani conspiracy. Nawaz Sharif is to address UN General Assembly on 21st September. Thus its plan is to provoke India to retaliate so that it can play victim card to save itself from impending isolation. That's why India's defence minister and Army Chief went to Kashmir to cool down the anger among soldiers and ask them to not lose patience.

Reportedly, there are around 2-3 more militant organisations waiting for an opportune time to carryout Uri like attacks. That's why Rajnath Singh took review meeting with the NSA, RAW, DG/BSF and even with DG/CRPF as internal security is his responsibility.

Point is simple. India will definitely retaliate but not immediately. It will wait till Sushma Swaraj's UNGA address (on 26th September) where she will expose Pakistan and most likely hint the international community that India has run out of patience.

In the meantime, India will make sure that SAARC summit is cancelled with the help of Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Bhutan and probably Nepal. The final plan of proactive/surgical attack/mid-range escalated war fare along the LOC will be started. These actions will make Pakistani Army to run towards the eastern border.

Due to this, rebels in Balochistan will intensify their activities due to shortage of the Pakistan Army at its western border. The POK rebels will also be asked to raise their rebellion against Pakistan so that it feels the pinch. All such things require time to make strategy. Thus don't expect any immediate action.

If my guess is right India may retaliate after the conclusion of UNGA session. In the meantime, diplomatic support will be obtained internationally. Point to be noted is that PM Narendra Modi neither forgets anything nor forgives.

Some peace doves (pro-Pakistani agents in India) have started terrifying people that there could be a nuclear war, which will be damaging to India. Even the Pakistani defence minister has threatened nuclear war. But one should reject such bluffs because first of all the nuclear doctrine doesn't approve use of such weapons at whims.

Secondly, Pakistan very well knows that even if a small nuclear weapon is dropped in its Panjab province in retaliation, then there will be no Pakistan as Pakistan means Panjab.

Thus India will definitely retaliate but at a time and place of its choice. Pakistan should be ready to face the wrath of Indian forces under the Modi government.

In fact, this retaliation could be much worse than 1971 as unlike Indira Gandhi, PM Modi enjoys more international support and the Indian economic clout is much bigger to force the world power to fall in line in order to get entry in Indian market.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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