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US presidential election 2016: Why I won't be surprised if Donald Trump becomes the next president?
The presidential election of United States of America is due to be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The electoral atmosphere is very hot as both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are indulged in desperate last moment campaigns.

As the present opinion polls show that both are neck-to-neck, it's difficult to predict who's going to win. Just few days ago, all opinion polls were showing that Clinton is way ahead of Donald Trump. But suddenly, with just a couple of days to go for the D-day, it appears that Donald Trump is catching up with Hillary Clinton. Some have even started saying that Trump might turn out the underdog or the dark horse in this election.

It must be realised that Americans are in a tough task of choosing between bad and worse. Both Trump and Clinton do not command credibility in front of the American public as good persons to become the next president. Thus, the Americans have to elect bad over worse. That means whoever is elected would be termed as lesser evil.

Frankly speaking, many including me wish Hillary Clinton to win, not because I like her ideology or persona or I am against Trump. But, just because I am a lover and admirer of democracy and I strongly wish that the oldest democracy of the world should at least get its first woman president. It's really strange why America never got a woman president in its 228 years of history.

But despite my wish, my analysis says that most probably Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States of America. Although, I would be extremely happy, if proved wrong. But then, logic is logic. Read on..

In the 228 years of US presidential electoral history (first election was held in 1788), Democratic party got more than two successive presidential terms twice. From 1828 to 1840, Andrew Jackson was president for two terms followed by Martin Van Buren. Similarly, America had Democratic presidents from 1932 to 1952 continuously for five terms, when Franklin D Roosevelt held presidency for three terms (1932-1944) and Harry S Truman held it for two terms (1944-1952). After that, the Democratic party had just two successive terms thrice for its presidents. Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan (1852-1860), John F Kennedy and Lyndon B Johnson (1960-1968) and Barack Obama (2008-2016). Out of the above, from 1932 to 1952 there was a 'new deal' coalition under Roosevelt that ensured successive wins. On the other hand, the Republican party or GOP (Grand Old party) which gave more presidents (25 terms versus 16 terms) has better records of successive terms. It had ruled from 1800 to 1828 (7 continuous terms) with the old name as Democratic Republican (then after it became Republican only), 1868 to 1884 (4 successive terms), 1920 to 1932 (3 continuous terms). It also won five presidential elections out of six from 1980 to 1992. From 1992 till date, both the Democratic and Republican parties have won two successive terms (Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Barrack Obama).

The point to understand here is that Democrats have a poor record in winning successive terms (more than two). Hillary Clinton doesn't command such popularity that she can change the Democrats' poor record and win this election making history of retaining presidency for Democrats in the third successive term.

On the other hand, Trump appears to be a difficult candidate to speculate on. During primaries, every poll predicted that he will fall short of the required delegates to clinch the Republican nomination unchallenged. But he not only won 1,725 delegates but also won the all time maximum number of Republican votes, that is 13.3 million, breaking George Bush's 2000 record of 1,201 million votes. Here one thing must be noted though, that almost a record 30 million Republican voters voted this time, of which Trump got only 44 per cent votes, the lowest percentage to win the nomination in the history of Republican party. But then, Trump proved all opinion polls wrong.

That's why present opinion polls may not reflect the actual position of Trump verses Hillary. Trump no doubt talks about radical things compared to Clinton's mature stereotype statesmanlike talks. But then, people at large always find persons who talk straight radically as more friendly. Global as well as American people are definitely angry against jihadi terrorism. That's why Trumps anti-Muslim stand is getting support from many common Americans. Similarly, Mexicans dominate American crime world. When Trump vents anger (and hatred) against Mexicans, average Americans feel that Trump is talking in their own language.

Being the dark horse always helps. Majority media houses are campaigning against Trump and that might be helpful to Trump as nowadays every country's media house is seen with suspicion of vested interest campaigns.

One shouldn't forget the Indian general elections of 2014. Narendra Modi had got the stiffest opposition (and negative campaign) from media houses as a result of which he got public support more profoundly. Nobody can say that same will not be repeated in US elections. The point to be noted here is that every democracy is equally mature or immature compared to other democracies and the common factors among all democracies are that the middle and lower class people, who always hold the key for election wins.

I heartily wish Hillary to win for the reason I gave earlier. But I will not be surprised if Donald Trump wins the American presidential election.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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