THE FAILURE of NATO forces in Afghanistan could make it tougher to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. Since the last few weeks, the ongoing military operation in South Waziristan has been dominating news headlines around the world for a variety of reasons.
Operation Rah-I-Nijat (Path to Salvation) achieved global attention not only because of the rapid successes that the Pakistan Army managed to achieve in what were expected to be tough fights, but also because the operation ignited a global debate regarding the real reasons and factors due to which the operation was being undertaken.
Over the last few months, Pakistani agencies have acquired confirmed information regarding the funding and training that terrorists holed up in the North West receive. Most of these emerging evidences, which also includes investigative reports by the media, clearly point towards India’s involvement in acts of cross-border terrorism and the double standards on the part of the US, which fails to acknowledge evidence and has therefore given India a freehand to carry out its anti-Pakistan activities via its Afghan consulates and embassies.
Just as in the case of Operation Rah-E-Rast, in the Swat Valley, during the current operation in SWA, the army has been claiming to have recovered Indian made arms, ammunition, medicines and banknotes, amidst other things from the caves, cells and other places where the Taliban terrorists have either been defeated or those places that they deserted.
Russian made 14.7 mm and 12.7 mm anti-aircraft guns have been reportedly used by the terrorists after being installed at elevated heights. These guns have been with the Indian Army for a very long time now.
However, the overall impact and outcome of the Waziristan operation goes well beyond the scale of Indian support for these terrorist elements.
A commonly proposed approach in Pakistan had called for the NATO forces and Pakistani Army to undertake jointly coordinated operations in order to squeeze the terrorists out of their strong-holds and along the Pak-Afghan border. Analysts proposed that just as Pakistani Army moved into Waziristan, the US and NATO forces should have also fortified their forward military positions along the border and taken the fight to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. This would create a bottle-neck effect by squeezing the terrorists along the border, where it would be easier for the armies to fight them.
Initially the Americans and NATO had given indication of supporting such a strategy, but their motivations changed since violence flared up in Afghanistan after the first round of a flawed election. Amidst rising violence and an impending operation in Waziristan, NATO forces had actually withdrawn from their forward positions along the Pak-Afghan border.
This evacuation of the NATO forces could have a strong impact on the outcome of Operation Rah-I-Nijat, where now the Pakistan Army is trying to close in on the strongholds of the terrorists, which are said to be deep inside SWA.
The terrorists now know that they can escape yet again into Afghanistan. The fact that there are no NATO forces on the other side of the Durand Line (name of the Pak-Afghan border) would also make it difficult for the Pakistani Army to reign in on the foreign sources of funding, communications, training and logistics, to which these terrorists have had ready access.
NATO and US forces in Afghanistan are known to be under-resourced, ill-trained and badly equipped to fight the terrorists. General Stanley McCrystal’s request to the Obama administration and the US Congress for more troops and fighting equipment has created a huge uproar in the US, where people are already fed up of the rising costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The ensuing political debate which forced the Obama administration to reconsider its previous troop-surge stance on Afghanistan could have a significant impact on US-Pakistan relations.
These political maneuverings on part of the US are being seen in Pakistan as acts of hypocrisy in the sense that despite verbal calls for support being made by American officials, they backtracked when support from international forces in Afghanistan was deemed crucial.
In the absence of strong NATO monitoring mechanism in Afghanistan, it would be difficult for the Pakistan Army to destroy Taliban’s terror infrastructure and to take out the organization’s senior leadership who may find it easy to escape into Afghanistan’s rugged terrain, without any fears of being nabbed or killed in combat.
In case the army is drawn into protracted long war, civilian institutions and the much needed investments over there in health care and education would only be kept off the table for the time being, which should not be an encouraging sign.
What needs to be understood is that the defeat of the terrorists in combat would only be the starting of a long drawn struggle to integrate Waziristan and other tribal areas with Pakistan’s mainstream. This goal cannot be achieved if substantial investments are not made in building schools, hospitals and setting up a judicial system for the speedy dispensation of justice.
The government should come up with elaborate plans to compensate those who have lost their homes and meagre belongings in their bid to move out before the fighting started. The same holds true about the Swat valley, where Operation Rah-R-Rast had led to the displacement of nearly three million people.
Although the information coming out from Waziristan is encouraging, clearly, more needs to be done in order to make that region free of terror. One thing that the government should do, first and foremost, is to internationally highlight the roles being played by anti-Pakistan intelligence agencies in fuelling violence there.
Our concerns are legitimate and this is something to which even the Americans now agree to, as demonstrated by senior US military commander, Mr Mike Mullen.
While addressing the Washington National Press Club on Thursday, 5 November, Mr Mullen had clearly said that there is no way that the US could persuade Pakistan to ignore the real or perceived ‘Indian threat.’ Even before Mr Mullen, other senior American diplomats and generals have emphasized upon the need of closely monitoring Indian actions and deeds in Afghanistan, so that Pakistan’s concerns can be addressed.
Another important point raised by Mr Mullen, is the fact that it is trouble in Afghanistan which is creating chaos in Pakistan, and not the other way round.
Most of the terrorists, who have been apprehended, interrogated or killed in combat by the Pakistani Army and its intelligence services turned out to be Indian, Afghan, Saudi and Uzbek nationals. Pakistan has every right to ask the US to monitor and control the infiltration of terrorists who are fleeing Afghanistan and coming over to places like South Waziristan.
What we are seeing in Waziristan today is actually a symptom of the West’s combined failure in Afghanistan. High levels of corruption and violence fuelled, along with grilling poverty, illiteracy and unemployment is actually proving to be a fertile ground for the Taliban and Al-Qaeda for recruiting terrorists, many of whom finally end up in Pakistan’s tribal areas.
This threatening trend of terrorist movements across borders needs to be controlled. By conducting operations against terrorists, first in the Swat Valley and now in South Waziristan, the Pakistani government and armed forces have shown that they had the courage and willingness to fight those elements who are not only challenging the writ of the federal and provincial governments, but are also attempting to impose their narrow minded approach towards life and Islam on all people of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
If the American and NATO forces do not undertake the requisite action along the Durand Line, then the impact of the achievements being attained by the Pakistan Army may be short-lived, provided that the Army does not decide to stay in the region and supervise the humanitarian and reconstruction work.
However, as Pakistan is doing all what it could in attempting to ensure that our children and grandchildren live in a peaceful world free from the menace of terrorism, the West has not responded in kind. Aid and relief goods supplied to internally displaced people has remained woefully low and American assistance towards educational, health care and social sector reforms has also been close to nothing.
The five year $7.5 billion aid Kerry-Lugar aid package is worthless as this amount translates into only $8.571 (PKR 702.8571) per capita aid per year, which is not even enough to buy a good pair of cricket shoes, what to talk about health care and education?
The current American diplomatic dealing is only creating confusion amongst Pakistanis, only some of whom argue that generous American initiatives should be availed. Most people are still, however, very critical about American diplomacy and intentions, especially over the drone attacks.
Anti-American sentiments (even amongst the educated classes) has been seething at such high levels that the Pakistan Army has deliberately avoided to publicly mention that American weaponry, including the latest imaging technologies provided to the Air Force’s F-16s has played a lead role the Army’s successes in Waziristan.
By making such an acknowledgement, the Army may risk the crucial public support that it requires to conduct Operation Raah-I-Nijat. It could well risk its own institutional integrity by being viewed as fighting a war against its own people at the behest of the Americans. Such is the level of anti-Americanism in Pakistan at the moment.
Conclusively, it can be said that as the Pakistani government and the Army are starting to take evolving regional security challenges seriously and have rallied the nation behind this eternal cause, their efforts should be praised and criticism should only be made, if it is for improvement. Also, Western countries should understand that their failure to undertake requisite military operations in Afghanistan would be seen by the terrorists as a free-pass allowing them to disperse from Waziristan in order to fight another day.
