But the game is not limited to India and Pakistan. The fact is that the CIA would get the news of the horrendous possibility of it getting actualized before the ISI gets to know it. It would enter into the game and the weapons would more likely to go in the hands of radicals and extremists acting against Pakistani state. The CIA and the Pentagon would never like to see India getting attacked through nuclear weapons. After all, India is one of the few places in Asia where capitalism can easily survive. Moreover, India can act as a hedge against China’s militaristic and nationalistic rise.
So, in all likelihood it is the nationalist Baloch and hard-core tribes in the North-West Frontiers which are more likely to have final access to Pakistani nukes than those who are completely anti-India. After that, the two now Pakistani states could declare independence from Pakistan.
But then India needs to fear from such possibility as there are so many hysteric elements in Pakistan who want to see India dead. Not only India but all South Asian states and beyond should fear from the consequences of rouge elements getting some nukes. Pakistan then would become a pariah state but its economy may show some signs about the destabilizing and chaotic Pakistan. Like India, Pakistan requires foreign capital and ideas and technology to maintain peace and stability inside its land. In fact Pakistani dependency on imports would increase with time and it may cross that of India in relative scale.
If Pakistan starts showing the signs of instability the capital would move towards India; both as a hedge and as strategy. This could further destabilize Pakistan. Pakistan has long history of relationship with India and not too many Indians should wish its demise as it would affect India negatively. No Westerner should either, as the collapsing Pakistan would create problem of governance in the region. Even Saudi Arabia could feel threatened because of this and Iran would become firm on acquiring nuclear weapons. Hyper-proliferation and hyper-aggression would increase leading to instability in the world. Tension all over the world would increase and so would be nationalistic militarism.
Whatever be the reason the fact is that in case of division of Pakistani nuclear assets; either because of dissent or because of consent, Pakistan would have to forget Kashmir. No Western nation would favor any addition of territory to chaotic and tribal-nationalistic Pakistan. But India would still not be able to attack Pakistani administered Kashmir as it would have to fear retaliatory attack from minimum two sides instead of one at present. The second or the possible third side could become more hawkish on Kashmir. Indians should not believe that people in the North-West Frontier and Balochistan would become friendly towards India. They do not understand state and it is obvious from whatever is happening inside these Pakistani territories. India’s worries would only increase in that case.
In order to allay such possibilities, which are hypothetical at this stage, Pakistan needs to reconstitute its state. There is continuous fight among diverse nationalism, liberalism, Islamism and communism in Pakistan. The panacea for Pakistani elites and state is not to cross accepted boundaries and not to go to extremes. Pakistan is beautiful as a moderate Islamic state with sufficient place for Anglicization and Westernization to let its elite thrive. Islamism if it replaces elitism could be devastating. Pakistan should never abandon imports and should promote English. Pakistan should never abandon its wish to compete with India in all spheres of life.
It requires dialogue and reconciliation among its various identities. Pakistan should promote inter-sectarian harmony. For that it needs to define political Right, Center and Left uniquely. Regional pride and chauvinism is property of all the non-West but if Punjabi regionalism and dominance are affecting the Pakistani state badly then a solution needs to be found out. But it does not mean that Nawaz Sharif, a Punjabi, should not be supported in the next general elections. It is the liberal Right which can contain far Right in Pakistan but with the help of the Westerners, particularly that of the US.
As far as Kashmir is concerned both India and Pakistan need to make compromises and share their pluses. No party should rule out any other party. Tolerance is required from all sides: Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and Sikhs. The no dilution of stakes with constant building up of their respective stakes by all parties with the common Western interests and stakes may be the right thing in Kashmir.
Chauvinism needs to go from the subcontinent but probably Pakistan needs to be first in this race. It is the beauty of the subcontinent demography that Indian Right and Pakistani Right can coordinate with each other and this could become fundamental basis in resolving the Kashmir dispute. If Pakistan does not change and divisions and dissents continue to grow with ever increasing radicalism and militarism, then the day is not far off when the war on terror would be explicitly fought inside Pakistani territory.
The most popular citizen journalists' reports on merinews chosen automatically on the basis of views and comments
View more jobs