Who will rule the roost next decade?
America is likely to quit fighting in Afghanistan. Pakistan may provide coverage to the withdrawing American army. Where do Afghanistan and India figure in this gloomy scenario? No one knows for sure.
CHINA IS an emerging giant on the Asian firmament. It has money and man power. China has the biggest quality of possessing the will to mobilise manpower. But for this quality, the Great Wall of China would not have come into existence.
Corruption is not absent in China either. Some top communist party officials were found guilty of political and economic corruption and were dealt with seriously. China's score card is a shade better than India's in this regard. PAKISTAN IS A PLAYER TOO Pakistan is a player by proxy and is perennially engaged in needling India at the behest of China. China aspires to be a global power and does not wish to be engaged in a regional conflict because that would prevent it from mounting the central rostrum in a global match. Pakistan is a congenital enemy of India's and is ever ready to embarrass its big neighbour at the drop of a hat. Pakistan had in the past engaged India in armed conflicts four times and had always lost the battle. And yet it is still in the play ground to make its presence prominent at the behest of the giant neighbour across the Himalayas. It suits China to pin down India with a small neighbour who has the money borrowed from it and would never return. China knows it. ROLE OF AMERICA DWINDLING The United States of America is becoming militarily weak day by day. America lost the Vietnam war and it was a blow to its prestige. America found it difficult to extricate itself from the middle-east and it made a dent in its image globally. Afghanistan war has not put a shine on American army either. The shield of NATO that the USA tried to use was of little help in the hit and run engagements in the hills and dales of that rugged country. America just does not know what to do next. An embarrassment of global military nature indeed. In the emerging scenario after weakening of America, China will occupy the centre stage. India may be there if it shakes off foreign political intervention and corruption. India has to be a super power to engage China economically and militarily. Let us see how India shapes its destiny in months to come. There lies the future of Asia and the world. AN EYE ON CHINA A student of International affairs cannot but keep an eye on China. Generally speaking, China is secretive. Even the seasoned sleuths find it hard to smell what is cooking in Beijing. Although there is no iron curtain like it used to be to prevent a peep into the Kremlin in the Communist era but existence of the bamboo curtain cannot be denied. The monolithic system of governance with a single party calling the shots, denial of information to rival powers is comparatively easier. The potential rivals do not have ghost of a chance. Therefore, big military parades like the one held to celebrate the Sixtieth Anniversary of the Communist coming to power in Beijing on 1st October 1949 are the only windows giving credible information of sensitive nature. If the Chinese intelligence puts a deception plan into operation, the foreign intelligence representatives draw a blank or cut a sorry figure by feeding unreliable data to home office. Of course, the Chinese language plays a crucial role in protecting secrets of motherland because foreign military intelligence officers find the Mandarin language inscrutable. They have to be Beijing based to learn the basics of the linguistic game. MILITARY PREPARES FOR CONFLICTS It was quite a pleasant surprise to China watchers when Liang Guanglie, Defence Minister of China put diplomatic niceties aside and said that his country has to speed up modernisation of weapon system and equipment of the Armed forces. He was more forceful when he said that the military must prepare itself for military conflicts in every strategic direction in the next five years. With a view to understanding the hidden meaning behind the new agenda of conflict, it would be better to read what the exact words of the Defence Minister of China are: “We may be living in peaceful times but we can never forget war, never send the horses south or put the bayonets and guns away”. The defence minister had uttered those meaningful words in an interview that was published in the State backed newspapers. Naturally, the published interview caused an alarm in the neighbouring countries like India, Japan, Taiwan, Japan and so on. Of course, one should not lose sight of the fact that China now considers America as its rival in conflicts, both economic and military, and feels that India would remain bogged down with clash of interests with a small power like Pakistan. This image is indeed disgraceful for an emerging world power like India and she must show to China what her real strength is. IS ANOTHER INDIA-CHINA CONFLICT IN OFFING Let us hope not. As of now, China is miles ahead of India in all respects. We must, however, prove to China that now we are much stronger than what we were in 1962. The surest way to do it is to teach Pakistan a lesson. It should be similar to the one India taught her arch rival in 1971. The blow to Pakistan given by India must be swift, short and lethal. China should not have a chance to intervene militarily. India has to prove that it can Act more and Talk less. Right now India’s image in the comity of nations has taken a beating because we have failed to punish the criminal found guilty by the Supreme Court of a crime against the State. Can a weak government that failed to punish a criminal take a decisive action against an adversary state? When a small adversary state goes scot free, how can India take on China in any sphere? It is time the Indian policy planners and executors came out of the cocoon and learnt to live with the hard realities of life.
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