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Why one shouldn't be surprised if Nawaz Sharif government is dismissed in the coming weeks?
Although Imran Khan's protest rally or "lockdown" of the capital Islamabad scheduled for November 2 was abruptly called off (or replaced by a thanks giving rally), problems for Nawaz Sharif are not going to end soon.

While the high court gave a verdict against the lockdown, at the same time Pakistan Supreme Court paved way for a probe in connection with corruption charges against Nawaz Sharif and his family as per leaked Panama Papers. It asked for a TOR (Term of Reference from petitioner as well as the government).

Many experts in Pakistan believe that although Nawaz was saved from Imran Khan's lockdown of Islamabad to oust him, he will find it difficult to get rid of the Pakistan SC monitored probe. But then, this could be an immediate breather for Nawaz as the probe is likely to take much more time. Even Nawaz could complete his tenure by that time.

However the point is whether Nawaz Sharif would be able to complete his term? I don't think so. By all accounts, Sharif is going to lose power by the end of 2016 and won't be able to contest the next elections. To understand this, I have presented the below analysis:

The drastic political outcomes in Pakistan are always influenced by Indo-Pak conflicts. Pakistani military is the supreme power in Pakistan. But whenever Pakistan gets defeated by India in an armed conflict, the civilian government is blamed and military dictatorship takes over the rule officially. This has happened after every war between India and Pakistan. In 1999, Kargil War happened due to Musharraf's ambitions, about which even Nawaz Sharif wasn't aware. When India retaliated and Pakistan had to abandon even the dead bodies of their soldiers, Pervez Musharraf-led army should have taken the responsibility. But instead, Nawaz Sharif was dismissed through a bloodless coup by the army, making Pervez Musharraf the new dictator of Pakistan.

The present case is also similar. The surgical strike by India may not have been officially accepted by them but everyone in Pakistan knows about it. This is a great embarrassment to them because Pakistan never expected India to carry out such an attack against a nuclear powered nation. Raheel Sharif is retiring this November and must be a pained person. He never wants to retire with such an embarrassment. Thus, things are being done overtime to blame Sharif and oust him.

Imran Khan's lockdown was in fact planned by the Pakistani Army. The aim was to force Nawaz Sharif to resign. Those who know Pakistani politics must be aware of Imran Khan's limited support base in Pakistan. Thus, a large scale protest was only possible by the support of Pakistani Army. There was also a proposal of JuD chief Hafiz Saeed addressing the lockdown rally had the court not interfered. The point to be noted here is that Hafiz Saeed never criticises the Pakistan Army but rather blames Nawaz Sharif government for Indian dominance in the region.

It's now being planned to corner Nawaz Sharif through proof of his involvement in Panama Papers leaks. He would be forced to resign and then will not be allowed to contest in the next elections. Similar arrangements are being made to ensure that key PPP leaders are banned from contesting elections on charges of corruption. Raheel Sharif will contest the elections being the head of the coalition minus the PPP and Muslim League (N).

Raheel Sharif can't stage a direct coup because of certain provisions of American law which will stop all kinds of financial aids (including humanitarian) to Pakistan. Thus, he wants to take over the country through elections (even if it requires rigging). The only problem for Raheel Sharif is that should Nawaz declare the next army chief of his own choice. At the moment, Nawaz Sharif is trying his best to do so, but at the same time, Raheel Sharif too is trying his best to dislodge the government before Nawaz announces the name of the next army chief without his consent. In the coming fortnight, I think things will move in a particular direction which will clearly tell whether Nawaz is able to retain power or Raheel Sharif will have the last laugh.

If elections are fought under Raheel Sharif's leadership, a win for him is almost but certain. For information of some of the peace doves of India, let me say very clearly that people to people contact will never solve any problems between India and Pakistan. Anti-India seeds are systematically sown in the minds of all Pakistanis since their childhood. Thus, irrespective of whatever might happen, Pakistani people will always have anti-India sentiments and arbitrarily indulge in anti-India activities. Pakistani Army is by default more anti-India than any civilian government of Pakistan can ever aspire to be. Thus, Pakistani people will always support their army generals and readily accept them as their political masters.

That's why one shouldn't be surprised if Raheel Sharif becomes the new political face of Pakistan in the coming weeks. Nawaz is most likely to be dismissed soon and no Pakistani will shed a tear for him. I can only say that may God save Pakistan.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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