Let’s come to question whether the Congress will support AAP for the full term. My answer is no, it wouldn’t. However, it will support AAP for at least two years. Read on to know how.
Let’s first admit that, the Congress has to support AAP for at least up to 2014 general elections. Anybody with some sense of political situation would agree that next government at the Centre wouldn’t be of Congress. There can be two possibilities post general elections 2014.
First is of a Modi led NDA government. Second, 3rd/4th front government supported by Congress from out side. In case, there is a government with the out side support of the Congress, then to withdraw its support for another elections to happen, Congress would definitely wait for one and half years. This time frame can be considered on the basis of past 3rd/4th front governments. Any party would need such time period to stand again with an honest ground work and with the anti-incumbency of unstable 3rd or 4th front governments.
Thus first six months up to 2014 general elections and then a period of 18 months post elections in the case there is no BJP Govt. constitute minimum 2 years. It may want Delhi elections along with mid-term general elections may be during 2016-2017!
In this analysis, I have considered the Congress as purely supporting AAP on vested interest. The tenure may be increased, but in no case, support would be less than two years.
If there is Modi led government at centre, post May 2014, then the Congress would definitely not want Delhi re-elections, because being Modi as PM, there would be complete rout in Delhi assembly elections. Rather it would extend its support to AAP and would support till the period they feel Modi and the NDA government are subject to anti-incumbency.
Thus in both the scenario, Congress’ political compulsion is to ensure a non-BJP government at Delhi, because that would at least give them solace, that they are at least part of a government despite being supported outside!
Now the question is whether to form a government that may fall in two years and particularly when the manifesto talks about neither supporting any party nor taking support of any party. Point is when this condition was made, either the party thought it would get full majority, or there would be majority government other than AAP. Whatever may be reasons, AAP has gone to public with their manifesto. Now public has given them a mandate.
If the verdict is closely scrutinized, the outcome is very simple that AAP should form a government with an un-conditional support from outside. After forming the government if they would do good things, then no one can withdraw support to them, as whoever withdraws they would have to face public wrath.
Also, it must be understood that right intent and honest efforts can be understood by the public even in three months! Here I can promise that if not a full term, at least two years unconditional support is available. I think even two years of governance is sufficient for AAP to prove its credentials!
I believe that though Delhi rejected the Congress rule but didn’t reject the eight Congressmen. If AAP rejects the support of these 8 men, this would be insult to the mandate!
Thus with at-least two year of unconditional support, AAP should take the challenge to form the government. It shouldn’t think about its tall claims of reducing electricity tariff by 50%, supplying free water or other things. AAP need to work sincerely and transparently for the public interest and in the process, if some of the promises couldn’t be fulfilled, none will mind as they would judge from them on the basis of their honest efforts.
On the other hand, if AAP tries to shy away from the responsibility of forming the government, then it would damage AAP’s prospect in coming elections.