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Will 2019 Lok Sabha elections be Modi versus a united opposition?
Karnataka Assembly election results have rejuvenated the opposition parties and rekindled their dwindling hopes to take on PM Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

It's not that BJP performed badly, but what served as a moral victory for the opposition parties is that they were able to keep the BJP from forming the government. It is likely that all top leaders belonging to 'anti-Modi' brigade shall take part in the swearing-in ceremony of HD Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) on 23 May 2018 to show their solidarity.

Any alliance formed due to compulsions is not an alliance at all, it is called an illicit relationship. The Congress had to unconditionally give support to the JD(S) because they were rejected by the people of Karnataka. The JD(S) is an expendable ally. The Congress is just using this party to keep the BJP out of power so that their corruption deeds in Karnataka remain buried.

HDK during an interview said that he did not like the way things happened post the elections. He accepted the offer only for a greater cause to unite the opposition so that the BJP could be defeated in 2019. Noble purpose…really? But then HDK could have abdicated the CM post and asked the Congress to lead the alliance. Why did not he do this? Perhaps personal ambition stumped the bigger goal. Let us see whether he passes the floor test as the threat is still not over particularly after Yeddyurappa's emotional exit coupled with the proof that the audio tapes of alleged horse trading by the BJP were fake. If he loses the floor test, then the opposition unity will take a beating and the Congress will permanently be sent into oblivion.

Anyways, that does not matter much. Let us talk about unified opposition to take on PM Modi in 2019.

In a heated debate on a TV channel, spokespersons of a few opposition parties were unanimously shouting at the top of their voices that the countdown of Modi government had started. When the anchor asked who would lead the opposition parties and become the PM face, all the spokespersons were silent as if dead. A spokesman showed courage to say that there were a lot of leaders who could assume the PM's position. When asked to name one, the spokesman only consulted the ceiling searching for answers, but in vain.

This is the problem of opposition parties. Rahul Gandhi of the great grand old party is not commanding support because of his poor sense of politics. Any other leader is restricted to the region where he has presence. In view of this, a consensus candidate to lead unified opposition still remains a dream and that is advantage Modi.

A unified opposition is the new theory. Earlier there were always talks of a third front (sans Congress and the BJP) before the elections which never materialized. The need of a unified opposition arose out of fear of Modi.

Here is the irony! All the opposition parties are saying that Modi did not do anything in the last four years and failed in delivering any of his promises. Fine, but then, why do they want to unite to take on Modi?

The fact is that Modi has done tremendous work improving the lives of the downtrodden and poor which ultimately gets converted in to votes. The opposition knows this and therefore they have to unite to add their committed votes.

The vote bank politics is prevailing in the country since decades. Every party has a committed vote bank. So in case the opposition parties combine, the BJP has to get more than 50 per cent of votes to win the election. This is what the BJP is targeting irrespective of opposition unity.

From where will they get the extra votes? This is a big question having a simple answer. The people will choose either Modi or Mr Xyz of the unified opposition. Irrespective of the so far anonymous candidate of the united opposition, NaMo will be the overwhelming favorite. Floating voters, fringe voters and even committed voters of other parties will vote for him. This is what the BJP is banking upon. Karnataka Assembly election have opened the eyes of people. If they don't bring NaMo with absolute majority, then any Tom, Dick, and Harry will become the PM and the nation will go back to the Stone Age once again. The BJP will spread this message in addition to Modi's achievements.

Someone argued that the JD(S) and the Congress had more percentage of votes combined than the BJP, and so too the seat tally. I counter this by saying that if the JD(S) and the Congress had entered into a pre-polls alliance, then the BJP's strategy would have been entirely different and so also the results. My point is that a pre-poll alliance is different from a post poll alliance. If all the opposition parties somehow unite before the elections and field just one candidate against the BJP, the results could go BJP's way because people will be voting for PM. The opposition knows about this and therefore it is not taking shape.

I think the opposition will wait till the elections for Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are over towards the end of this year. There is a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP in these states. If the Congress snatches a state from the BJP, then probably the opposition will consider Rahul Gandhi as their consensus leader. But then, the BJP will be happy with this scenario of Modi vs Rahul.

The fact is that despite efforts, a unified opposition is still a dream. Even if it forms, its leader will be no match to Modi. Therefore the opposition parties should forget 2019 and start working for 2024 although the prospects will still be doubtful. It is because even united evil cannot beat an honest man.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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