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Will the Telangana gambit work for the Congress in 2014 elections?
It's official now that Congress-led UPA is introducing Telangana bill for bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. GoM on Telengana has approved the proposal and soon the draft would be presented to the Union Cabinet. It's also confirmed that the bill will be tabled in the current session of the Parliament and in all likelihood this would be passed in both the Houses. Thus there should be no doubt that Telangana is going to be India’s 29th state.

Interestingly this is done despite Andhra Pardesh assembly's rejection to presidential reference on this bill, the Congress government of Andhra is revolting against its own party-government, Congress MPs from Seemandhra apart from disrupting the House, also served no-confidence motion against their party-led central government. This is unprecedented in current history.

I refrain from discussing merits or demerits of the Telangana issue. The sole intention of this article is to study the Congress’s gambit on Telangana. The Congress manifesto in 2009 was for a separate state of Telangana. Thus the Congress sticks to the logic that they are bifurcating Andhra Pradesh as per their electoral promises and doesn’t care about consequences! But is the Congress really not worried of the political consequences? Is it so firm on its principles?

It’s firmness on principles can simply destroyed if one looks on Bihar polity. Congress is officially going for alliance with RJD (and LJP) despite Rahul Gandhi’s high moral standings that no alliance with corrupt leader and parties. It’s just a matter of convenience to compromise on principles even with excuses, when electoral benefit is at stake.

When Congress principally decided that they are going for separate Telangana state, its general secretary Digvijay Singh immediately in a press conference demanded TRS to merge with the Congress as per latter’s promise. Thus from that day it was clear that the Congress is going for Telangana to salvage electoral benefit from at least Talengana areas despite the risk of being wiped out from Seemandhra area.

In the mean time though TRS thanked the Congress for its Telangana decision but showed no intention to merge in the Congress. This is really a catch 22 situation for the Congress. They would be lost in Seemandhra region heavily and TRS would take all credit and electoral benefit in Telangana region!

Still it decided to go for theTelangana knowing very well that it’s going to lose in both Telangana and Seemandhra. Is the Congress fool enough to dig its own grave? Or there is a brilliant strategy in fine prints that doesn’t appear at the surface?

At this point, none can agree that this is any wise idea by Congress. But if the chronology and other events are scrutinized minutely and logically one can realize that, the Congress in fact is working with a brilliant strategy in order to take maximum electoral benefit foxing all its opponents like they did in 2009 election!

If closely monitored, one can note that the Congress MPs and MLAs from Seemandhra though criticised the central government but none has ever spoken against Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi. They protest inside Parliament, in front of Andhra Bhawan, but none has protested in front of Sonia Gandhi-Rahul Gandhi residences or the Congress party office! Why it so, despite the fact that it’s Sonia Gandhi who stood firmly for a separate Telangana? The real strategy is inside this question. Before coming to this master strategy, let’s briefly understand their trick during 2009 general elections.

In 2009, the Congress the issue of separate Telangana in its manifesto. This reaped them fantastic electoral benefit in Telangana region where they out smarted TRS easily. People of Telangana trusted the Congress and considered TRS is power hungry and voted the Congress overwhelmingly. Former CM YSR didn’t agree to Telangana proposal, but results would had been devastating for the Congress in Seemandhra, had Praja Rajyam Party didn’t surface at that time. This new party strongly opposed bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh.

In Andhra Polity, BJP has no ground and TDP is only anti-Congress party. Thus it suffered huge electoral loss due to spoiler action of PRP and the Congress reaped huge dividend in this region too. Later on PRP merged with the Congress like a perfect script.

This time too, as a strategy, the Congress MPs and MLAs are revolting and criticizing against central government (and not against the Congress Party). The future course would be after the bill is passed in the Parliament and all would resign in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly. They would show the Seemandhra people that they are dead supporter of united Andhra for which they even sacrifice the power, even the party. They may contest elections either as independents or with forming a new party!

By playing martyr and emotional card they will try to win hearts of Seemandhra people. Because of TDP's leniency towards Modi and BJP (which is pro-Telangana) and its flip-flops on Telangana stand, Seemandhra people will vote this new outfit finding it as only alternative for united Andhra sentiment. Thus in 2014 elections TDP will again lose heavily. Then at an opportune time, this new out-fit will merge in the Congress with simple excuse that they don’t support communal BJP and its ally TDP! Thus the story ends. In addition the Congress is being benefited in Telangana because it fulfilled its promise of separate state!

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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